The new pope – Leo XVI (Robert Francis Prevost) – may only just have been elected. But statisticians from the ҹèÊÓƵ and University College London have suggested he could serve as head of the Roman Catholic Church for around the next 14 years.
They made the prediction following an analysis of every pope’s age when being elected to the papacy, and their subsequent length of service, since 1404.
They say it is important to explore this, as the perceived duration of a pontificate can influence the policies a pope can propose and implement, and the global impact that those policies can subsequently have.
The researchers’ work is based on a mathematical method called survival analysis, which can be used to predict the survival times of people recovering from infectious diseases or an organ transplantation.
They began applying it in relation to papal service following a comment made by the late Pope Francis in 2014, just a year into his papacy, that he expected to live another two or three years and might then retire.
When he died in April 2025, he was 88 years old and had in fact served for just over 12 years. This was almost exactly what the researchers had predicted based on their analysis.
Their model also shows that since around 1600, popes – like the rest of the population – have generally enjoyed an increased life expectancy which has led to several pontificates of two decades and more.
The analysis was carried out by
Dr Julian Stander
, Associate Professor in Mathematics and Statistics at the ҹèÊÓƵ, and Professor Mario Cortina Borja, from University College London, for the Significance website.
Dr Julian Stander